August 30, 2009

Is it finally September? Markets starting to act a bit robust taking a cue from Shanghai overnight markets down -7%. Good market action and withstanding 3x a stop out by the tick, it still managed to be a +4.75 pt day per contract. Would have been a stellar Monday without the tick-outs but that's trading (or at least that's what they tell me ). Hopefully your stops were 1 tick farther away.

August 28, 2009

Typical August summer Friday with lots of movement in the pre IB hour with subsequent settling down into value area most of the afternoon. Those seeking a 'Lonesome Highway' trade (VAL to VAH), you would have missed a 5 point trade by 1/2 point. Sell at close would have provided a 2.5 gain for those patient enough to withstand the chop.

One point of perspective, the S&P index continues to provide lower 20-day highs at a time when the index is making new highs. The peak was in mid-July. Questionable divergence since the shorts keep covering and fund managers need to participate on the long side. Just a note to consider next time you consider jumping in at the highs. TWC will continue to monitor this divergent pattern.

August 27, 2009

Unexpected trend day down then followed by a nice trend day up. Could not hold the entire way thru but those that follow 15 minute H/A bars fares quite nicely with little stress. Will take the flat day into tomorrow that expects to be.....flat. Dell earnings suprise could be a tell for tomorrows' opening and thus test those highs made earlier today.

August 26, 2009

Another slow day with relatively little opportunity for big runners. Stuck to the 1.5-2 point range targets within the value zone. 3-1 in trades ending the week long undefeated streak. Will take the small gain into Thursday.

August 25,2009

Another stellar day in the ES going 5-0 maintaining a perfect trading performance week to date. +8 points per ES contract. Nice flow to the markets with plenty of opportunities throughout the session. Only error was passing up a few afternoon signals due to protect the green mode. Reality will set in but hopefully not to quickly.

August 24, 2009

Slow day after the opening range was set. Need to get accustomed to it for the next few weeks as traders sleep at the beach. 2-0 for ES trades today for total of 2.75 conservative points per contract. Any green on Monday is good for carryover til tommorrow' session.

August 20, 2009

Horrific trading action with exception of 1st hour. Options expiration is like that and add in summer trading and you have very lethargic trading. Taking a 1 point loss into tommorrow with anticipation of 1/2 day trading and at minimum level at that. Wake me up September 1st.

August 19, 2009

Suprising rally in the am session since Asia collapsed. Lots of shorts expecting more and had to cover. Just goes to show that you follow the H/A bars and you can stay out of trouble (for the most part). Somewhat chopped up and gave back some of the ticks in commission. Just staying afloat on options ex week is considered success.

August 18, 2009

Smelt, felt and looked like a dead cat bounce off of Monday's drop. Only time will tell. Continued that nice trading streak in the a.m. session only to have a net flat afternoon. Still pleased with a 4-2 day, +2.75 per contract day. Any green on options expiration week can't be bad. Looking for volatility after the IB has been established to be dry until month's end.

August 17, 2009

Nice shocker of a down opening but unable to catch any except for a pre-market short. After initial balance set in, it was chop price action. Caught 2 moves thru the value zone, albeit a 3 point range. 4-0 in trades with small scalp profits in all. That what happens when you have a 3 point afternoon range. Will take the points into Tuesday.

August 14, 2009

Disappointing day in the fact that we held a bias for a rotational day. Ended up a trend day with a short covering rally at the close. Both were missed due to the bias. Great lesson from even the pros. It's ok to have a bias but never neglect what the market is telling you. Anything can happen. No damage since no trades. Only the loss in opportunity. Look forward to a new week. Great weekend all!

August 13, 2009

Nice price action today with a 10 point opening range allowing for some nice flow thru the MP range. Only a 3-2 w/l today. Did have a critical trade that hit target with no fill. Hung in there for a b/e on that one. Otherwise, kept the losses small and the winners run. Nice way to enter a Friday. Certainly in protect the green mode come tomorrow morning.

August 12, 2009

No trading today. FOMC meeting + 10 Yr. Treasury auction. Will resume tomorrow.

August 11, 2009

Nice flow to the markets today. Unexpected trend down day but price action still allowed some nice entries. Only challenge is that you still need to keep targets reasonable and not get to greedy. Managed six trades going 5-1 with a 5.75 net points per contract. FOMC decision day tomorrow so I'll pass on the day.

August 10, 2009

Many times traders often tell others how they traded in relation to the number of points gained, or if they followed their plan. Today, the market provided little opportunities for big plays. An opening range of 6 ES points led to indecision between chop between the range and range extension.
Today was a day where you shouldn't judge your day by the number of points gained or lost, but points gained in relation to what the market would give you. The 4 ES points today should be cherished as a homerun day, since that is virtually all the market would give.
Look for another homerun day tomorrow....preferably with more points!

August 7, 2009

Considering taking the day off from trading. Employment number report, summer Friday volume and choppy price action...you name it. Turned out to be great price action. Smooth entries and little heat on stops. Took longs on the way up and shorts on the way down. Breadth showing weakness and Goldman Sachs hitting new lows was a tell that this 200 point Dow rally had some signs of weakness. Didn't want to jump in front of a train, but would short on high probability setups. Results were a 4-0 day and target points for day. And to think I wanted to relax on the beach. Perhaps I'll do that next Wednesday during FOMC announcement day.
One last note: all four trades were from market profile signals. MP has been red hot of late.

Great weekend all!

August 6, 2009

Nice price action throughout the day. Thanks much to market profile value zones. Kept it light today while working with some projects. Will take the green, even if it was a lighter contracts and fewer setups.

August 5, 2009

Nice movement throughout the value areas. Took lots of guts if you trusted trading at extremes, but that's why those with higher risk parameters are rewarded. Given the chop bias (or at minimum, downtrend day), we opted out of the beautiful long setup in the p.m. All you needed was a 15 min chart and a heiken-ashi bar colors. Oh..and lots of discipline. Breakeven 3-2 after commission. Horrific given the price action.

August 4,2009

Summer price action continues with lots of chop. Targets, including some market profile targets are limited to 2-3 ES points. Difficult environment where a little chopiness can get you stopped with 1:1 risk reward. Slightly negative thanks to the the ZN bond trades which may need to take a seat soon. Couple of nice trades towards the end of the day including a runner long (is it possible to sell off at the close anymore?) minimized the damage. Until tomorrow.

Monday, August 3

The S&P hitting 1000 was about as obvious as Adam Lambert's status and it finally hit (the index, of course). Chop fest with little volume, however don't let that discount the fact that we've come a long way from 660. Neutral trading most of the day reflective of traders whooping it up in the Hamptons rather than in lower Manhattan.