Friday, February 26, 2010

Recap: Although we sometimes try to be open to any price movement, its prudent during the pre-market analysis to determine potential key pivot points determined due to prior price action. This as opposed to published pivot points, gaps, or important support or resistance levels. The ES/1097 level was a pivotal area in the prior days trading as well as high volume area throughout the month. Pre-market notes indicated an executed buy at this level regardless of economic news that may push price to this level. Sometimes the trading gods cooperate with this thinking, resulting in one of the best trading days year-to-date. We'll see if we can ride this wave further as we start the new month on Monday. Good weekend all. 

(options plays not included)
09:38 S 1101.50  +1.50
10:06 L 1097.50  +6.75
11:15 L 1103.50  +1.50
14:16 L 1103.50  +2.00

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Recap: Scary opening after the jobless claims number was released. Typical market in that it attracted in some naive shorts who got chopped up during the upswing of 15+ points. Market has some room to move higher but only after we get past the ever so important GDP tomorrow.

Wednesday, February 23, 2010

Recap: Price action took hold to key reversal numbers with a little help from Uncle Ben Bernanke who's rally crew pumped up price action after allowing us to get in at our key pivot price. Jobless claims can ruin the party tomorrow so we'll stay cautious in globex and in pre-market.

09:35  1098.00 L  -2.25
10:57  1095.75 L +6.25
11:27  1001.00 L +3.00

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Recap: Days following consolidation normally result in breakout days. Today was no different. Trading only the pm session, managed to take advantage of both mid-day bounce and the continuation. Light trading day give the half session but take the green into Wednesday.

11:37  S  1096.00  +1.50
14:52  S 1096.25   +2.75

Monday, February 22, 2010

Recap: Unlike most trend Monday's, the market traded in a small range seeking an equilibrium. The market didn't provide much opportunity so the best traders where the ones that just took what the market would give. A very nice start for the week. Look for breakout price action following this pause.


10:19  L  1105.75   +2.00
11:47  L  1106.00   +1.50
14:06  L  1106.75   +2.75

Friday, February 19, 2010

Recap: Surprising up move after the fed decision to raise the discount rate after Thursday's close. Bias got us a bit trapped but not after a nice globex short to capture the news panic down. No trade setups in the regular session. 

Globex 16:12  S  1104.25  +4.50

Thursday, February 18, 2010

February 18, 2010Recap: Interesting price action for a change with the ES piercing that 1100.00 level to close at the highs. Smooth price action around key pivot points allowed for relatively good trading and thus good results. Key trade was a trailer hold thru the 1100 area. A daring move with a breakeven stop but only 1/4 size on the trailer allowed for a good risk reward.Protect the weekly green mode starts on Friday with the CPI results at 08:30. May be overshadowed by the surprise discount rate hike after the close. Globex trading to be reported on Friday's official update.

08:26   S 1098.75  +1.75
10:45   L 1097.00  -1.25
11:43  L  1093.50  +1.50
12:02  S  1096.75  +2.25

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Recap: Snoozefest most of the day awaiting Fed minutes. Had to consider range trades all day which always increases the trade count and smaller targets. Managed to do quite well and book the profits into tomorrow. Would have been a very good day if the globex trade, which missed entry by 2 ticks, managed to fill.

Trades for today:

08:26  S  1098.75  +1.75
10:45  L  1097.00  - 1.25
11:43  L  1093.50  +1.50
12:02  S  1096.75  +1.00

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Recap: Extremely flatlined markets from 11:00 until the close. Only a small globex trade pre-market and a long shortly after the open. Markets could not be revived until the close so we just stood pat.Ready again for tomorrow's pivots which for sure will be 1090 area.

$ES Trades today:


09:21  L  1084.25   +2.25
11:28  L  1086.00   +3.25

Monday, February 15, 2010

Markets closed for Federal Holiday.
Also want to thank all that came to speak to me at the Traders Expo/ New York this past weekend. It was a long few days but certainly enjoyable to talk shop with the trading community.

Friday, February 12, 2010

Recap:  Lots of wide swings within the daily value area. Real difficult to grab most of them but will go into the holiday weekend with a reminder that confluence is king, regardless of setup. Must say the fib confluence is queen these days, providing good probe confluence throughout setup #2. Great weekend all.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Recap:  Chopfest that bordered a uncatchable rally after placement of the IB. Difficult to trade but also difficult to get hurt. Still have one remaining on a trailer. Results for the day pending outcome.

Trades Executed

10:00  L   1063.00  B/E
13:53  L   1074.00  pending  (1st target hit, +3, one remaining.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Extremely nice order flow thru the IB established in the first hour. This IB to IB range of price action has occurred every day this week as the market attempts to find (and test) value. 'Secretariat' setup continues its movement with two trades today. Coincidentally, they were off major confluence: VAH of 1066.25 and the VAL of 1058.75. Gotta love it when confluence works.

09:55  S  1066.75   +5.00
12:03  L  1061.50   +5.00

Tuesday, February 29, 2010

RECAP: One of the challenges of trading with confluence is that rare news event that disrupts good order flow. News of Greece getting assistance from the Eurozone forced us to lay low and the afternoon chop resulted in no good risk-reward traders. Technical result would have resulted in a relative break-even or a slight positive. We move to more normal trading tomorrow pending our snowstorm doesn't shut us down. 10-year auction too!

Monday, February 8, 2010

Recap: Wild swings all day forming a V pivot and ending down over 100 points on the day. The best action was in the globex session where price tested the POC and VAH and then back again (if you had the nerve). The setup of the day was for the IB high to the POC (if you had the time and nerve!). Caught a piece of both but gave back 3 opportunities that flashed itself in value only to be rejected. Globex nation. continues to impress. We'll look to see if that 1060 area will be tested in the globex, perhaps after a test of the 1053 lows.

17:12  S  1061.75  +3.00
07:44  L  1058.50  +3.00
09:52  S  1057.25  +2.50
15:14  S  1059.00  -2.50
15:37  L  1059.25  -2.50

Friday, February 5, 2010

RECAP: Can you say capitulation? We'll, you may care to say it, but time will tell if this monster doji on th daily bar will hold up. Rush to buy call options?  Not so fast, but the bullish tape erasing 200+ dow points in the last 2 hours is certainly reflective of an oversold market. Of course, we never know what the market will do. That's why we trade the charts. Here are the official trades for the day:

9:52   S  1057.25   +2.50
10:39 L  1059.50  +3.50
14:32 S  1046.50  +2.00 

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Incredible down auction but nearly impossibe to catch the move. Some small clips positive and negatve but for the most part, it was a seat on the balcony watching the short show. Employment numbers tomorrow should add some gusto.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Challenging day and managed t close out with a nice long runner inside value. Would have been a nice runner but market never let the shorts panic resulting in a b/e on the trailer and for the day less commish.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

You can fool some people some of the time.....

Unexpected trend day up today. All trend trades today and ended up a perfect 3-0, +7.50 (based on one contract). Entering an area that resumed some massive selling last week. Let's see how the response is....as early as in tonights globex overnight trading. Could have obtained more meat off the bone, particularly in the last few hours of trading, but we'll take it.

08:05  S 1089.75   +2.00
09:24  S 1088.25   +2.75
10:58  S 1093.50   +2.75

Monday, February 1, 2010

Recap: Trend day up for a change. In fact, it started at the first hour of the globex session at 7pm EST and never stopped. 60-min MACD momentum bars continued for a near record 23 hours. Not sure when the last time that happened. One trade from that time until 15:00.Taking that one trade to the bank. Love that when I can keep points and not give it back to my platform broker. Trades posted on the blog.

Here is the one trade for the day. Relunctantly opted out of the reversal at 15:00 (last hour of regular session) and saved 2.75 points.

19:00:  L 1072.50    +13.50