Friday, January 29, 2010

Recap: Extremely difficult conditions to trade this week and enlarged in today's price action. Longer term price anchor charts to be implemented starting Monday to accommodate increased volatility. This should keep point capture up with less trades and less stop out probes. Since Jan. 1, these anchors have provided nearly double the posted results and have avoided HFT stops patterns. Looking forward to taking a more tactician approach without fear of probe stop-outs. Negative day to end the week. 2-4, -6.75 point. We'll get them on Monday and look forward to a successful February.

Here are the trades today:

9:48   L  1084.25   +1.75
10:36 L  1092.00   -3.50
10:48 S  1086.00   -2.00
11:17 S  1085.00   +2.50
12:03 S  1078.25   -3.25
12:48 L  1083.25   -1.75 

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Crazy volatile markets continue with 70 point YM and 10 pt ES swings being the norm. Proper risk management in any plan is to reduce size and we are no different. Took a Fed-Day approach to the Bernanke hearings. GDP number out tomorrow at 08:30. Here are the official trades recorded. 

10:14  S  1084.00   +2.00
11:03  L  1085.00   -3.75
11:08  S  1081.75  +3.00

Will be trading GDP number release and overnight globex should opportunity prevail.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Crazy FOMC decision day and today was no exception. Kept it really light in the TWC setups onl;y having three trades. Not a bad idea to take off on these days but managed to hold our own within the winds of Treasury secretary hearnings, Apple product releases, Fed decision day and a pending State of the Union address. Look to get back to normal tomorrow.

10:08    S    1087.00   +2.50
15:14    L    1093.25   -1.25
15:44    L    1093.50   +1.00

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Market volatility is back. That's for sure. After a tank overnight thanks to China markets and what seemingly was an impressive AAPL report, ES dropped 10 points in evening globex. Unfortunately, we were caught long after a 60 min signal resulting in a stop. Todays action fared better. Results posted below:


20:01 (globex)  S 1091.25   -3.75
09:45                L 1090.50   +3.50
11:12                L 1093.50   +1.75
14:12                L 1098.50   -2.50
15:17                S 1095.75   +3.75 

Monday, January 25, 2010

Difficult price action to read so we kept it close to the belt. Don't want to get slammed on a Monday. Below are the trades for today:

06:55  S  1100.50   +1.50
10:31  S  1095.50   +1.50
11:35  S  1091.50   +1.50
13:11  L  1095.50   +1.50
14:40  S  1096.50    -1.50
15:04  L  1098.50    -2.50

Yahoo reports after the close tomorrow.  Watching NQ closely tomorrow as did today due to AAPL report.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Extreme disappointment in the overall result given the fact that you could have shorted at the open and flattened at the close. If trading was ever that easy.

Here are the trade activity for Friday:

10:24   1102.75  Short  -4.25
01:31   1104.75  Short  +1.75
14:13   1102.00  Short  +2.00
15:38   1092.50  Short  +4.75

Look for continued volatility and seek greater stops and targets to accommodate same.

  

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Recap posted on the http://www.twcfutures.com/ site for today's action. Trades recorded as follows

10:01  Long    1135.00   +1.50
10:38  Short    1121.50  +1.75
15:16  Short    1112.75   -2.00
15:49  Short    1115.75   +3.25

Overall a very nice week so far. Protect-the-green mode for Frantic Friday.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Recap: Another trend day, this time down. Most of the move was pre-market and during the IB period. Major pivot numbers noted on the site were big payoffs if one had the stamina and patience. Kiss off the 1126 area was almost to the tick. Turned out to be the daily low with a close 7 ES points higher. Take our +6.5 from 3 trades into Thursdays action. Markets trading well so far this week. 

Trades for today: (points per contract)

9:53am   Short 1137.00  +1.00
10:51am Short 1130.25  +1.75
11:08am Long  1127.25 +1.50
02:22pm Long  1130.00 +1.50


GS earnings report tomorrow morning. Will step aside accordingly

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Crazy trend up day after they pushed it down to the 26-27 level pre-market. Took the MACD momo at 9:00am and exited for 4 points as per plan. (woulda, shoulda, coulda held, of course). Waited for any pullback and only one was at 3:20pm where another 2+ points were captured.
This market is relentless and buyers are waiting for any pullback, even if they appear severe, like in the case of the 100 pt drop on Friday. IBM earnings out after close. Look good but initial selling on news.

The grand-daddy of them all, Goldman Sachs, out with earnings on Thurs. morning.


Trades for Today

09:04am  1130.75  +4.00
03:21pm  1144.25  +2.75

Monday, January 18, 2010

Markets closed - MLK, Jr. Holiday.
Futures up slightly in Sunday night globex.
Markets resume trading Monday evening 18:00.

Friday, January 15, 2010

With options expiration day upon us, not only was the conservative umbrellas up, but we also wanted to protect our weekly green. Our best opportunity was in the globex session, where the markets used the great earnings report by INTEL to perform their famous pump and dump routine by dropping 10 points at one point in the globex. 1138 was our price and bounced nicely off that area. During the regular session that area didn't hold so we sought out shorts. Confident about a late selloff back to the lows never happened and took at breakeven near the close. Daily result of 2-0-1 for a 2.5 pt gain into the holiday weekend.
Recently the markets were able to bounce back from these shakeout days. let's see if they can continue that. Official support and resistance numbers to go out Monday night but I wouldnt be suprised if that 1138 pops its head up as one of the pivots.
Good weekend all.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Always difficult to detect a range vs. trend day up , especially when the initial action is showing weakness. A H/A bar turns color, a 15-min bar is broken, then a fib break. Next thing you know your outside the IB and racing to new highs, leaving your 3 pt winner looking like food scraps. We'll take the slight net gain into expiration peak.

2-1 +1.25

January 11, 2010

Recap:
No official trades today however there was a nice range created that included a rare breach of prior days lows. Notice the HFT 'gotcha' trade early in the regular session. Price made new lows at the open, failed rally and broke the new low by a tick and bounced 5 points. Don't forget these play's now that HFT has virtually killed the breakout trader.
Anticipate range day for tomorrow and trade strategies accordingly.

January 11, 2009

Recap: Two trades today resulting in a 1-1 but positive 2.75 ES points. Markets getting a bit agitated at these highs. Looks like a surprise is coming soon.

January 8, 2010 Wrapup

Unemployement number resulted in a big red bar but in the end, it was a big fake out. Market slowly churned to the 1140+ mark with a late day rally. We closed shop with our long at 3:30 which we held for over 1 hour. Took 1.5 points but if we waited until close, it would have netted 5+. No regrets playing 50-50 hour.

Trades today

09:00 ES long 33.75 +3.25
14:15 ES long36.00 +1.50

Next week we have earnings season kickoff + options expiration. Lovely as always. Great weekend all.

Thursday, January 10, 2010

Unexpected trend day pre-employment report day. Caught us a bit by suprise but had an early (9:38EST) winner to use as insurance for the trading day. Slightly negative trades attempting pullbacks with stops hit or breakevens. did not play ther 3:02pm short but would have been stopped out if we did. Sometimes the market gives you these gifts but often enough. Waiting for jobs report and will sit tight pre-market.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

The prior post noted an overnight session pending. Trade was closed at 4am EST for a 1.75pt winner. Market had a small range (5.75 points) but still managed a 3-4 plus the overnight trade for a 4-5 trade record with a +3.75 points per contracts. Missed a nice 2.25 point winner (no fill) but will not complain about the days action.


Trade Journal for today is listed below.

time result point target actual result

11:32pm target 2.50 1.75
08:47 target 1.75 1.75
10:38 stop 3.00 -2.50
12:01 target 1.75 1.50
15:20 target 1.25 1.25


Look for jobless claims to cause some volatility tomorrow 8:30am. Vol may tighten up in the afternoon awaiting the big monthly unemployment number. Then again, anything can happen. We'll just keep trading the range.

Globex session: Tuesday ALERT

Interesting short setup forming in the globex session.
1:50am short ES 2.5 target/stop 1:1 risk reward.

Looking for a nice suprise at wakeup.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Here are today's trade journal entries:

1. 7:41am short -2.25 28800 vol chart. Stop out on immediate bar reversal.
2. 10:16am long +4.50 target
rode this cowboy all day and exited at close of regular session +3.00. Holders would have resulted in a breakeven from the indications of the overnight globex session. Great example why stops below confluence are there not only to protect you but allow the markets volatility to do its thing.

Interesting note was that our business continunity/emergency response plan which was developed in 2009 and thankfully never implemented was needed on the 2nd day of the new trading year. Computers are a funny thing and our new terabyte chip that never freezes did just that. Stops were in place with phone in hand to the broker (thankfully the trade was thru the always-available Infinity brokerage!) all was resolved in time for a 3:58 flatten. From a risk perspective, the controls were in place. We had the backup plan and our bracketed stop in place. The risk was our inability to move our stop near the close (we had at 2.5 point winner at the time). All worked out and in fact may have allowed us to hold on a bit longer for some extra meat off the bone.

Looking at some initial weakness after that sharp run up during the last hours and suggest watching for a short in the early part of the overnight session.

January 4, 2010 Wrapup

Looks like an easy day to trade but trend days are always challenging. If you get in early, you probably get out to soon. Once the rally takes off, you can't find a pullback to get long. TWC suffered the wait game today but continue to stick to the plan. One small loss today (-2.25) but encouraged the volume and range is back.

M.Toma - Dir. Risk Mgmt
TWC Futures Group

January 4, 2010

Good trading to all for the first trading day of 2010. Just stick to the plan and let the market do the work. Check out the latest updates to the TWC Futures Site:

- 9k account benchmark update for 1-2 contract accounts.
- Article: Blueberries and Cherries: 8 yr old boy's trading results.

Trading results updated after regular session close.