Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Recap: Failed breakout made the ME to CA trade ..a.k.a. IB to IB trade available and successful. Two successive days in a row this has occurred for the swing accounts. We still have a partially long SPY position that took a hit but the markets left the opportunity to take some off right at the highs. 

04:28  (globex)  L  1116.25 +2.00
10:02                S   1122.25 +2.25
10:46                S   1124.25 -1.75  
13:11                S   1123.75 +6.00

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Recap: One of the more difficult days to trade since the expected follow thru tease did not come to pass. Still managed a small plus day after commish. Most importantly, the positive streak continues.

Friday, February 26, 2010

Recap: Although we sometimes try to be open to any price movement, its prudent during the pre-market analysis to determine potential key pivot points determined due to prior price action. This as opposed to published pivot points, gaps, or important support or resistance levels. The ES/1097 level was a pivotal area in the prior days trading as well as high volume area throughout the month. Pre-market notes indicated an executed buy at this level regardless of economic news that may push price to this level. Sometimes the trading gods cooperate with this thinking, resulting in one of the best trading days year-to-date. We'll see if we can ride this wave further as we start the new month on Monday. Good weekend all. 

(options plays not included)
09:38 S 1101.50  +1.50
10:06 L 1097.50  +6.75
11:15 L 1103.50  +1.50
14:16 L 1103.50  +2.00

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Recap: Scary opening after the jobless claims number was released. Typical market in that it attracted in some naive shorts who got chopped up during the upswing of 15+ points. Market has some room to move higher but only after we get past the ever so important GDP tomorrow.

Wednesday, February 23, 2010

Recap: Price action took hold to key reversal numbers with a little help from Uncle Ben Bernanke who's rally crew pumped up price action after allowing us to get in at our key pivot price. Jobless claims can ruin the party tomorrow so we'll stay cautious in globex and in pre-market.

09:35  1098.00 L  -2.25
10:57  1095.75 L +6.25
11:27  1001.00 L +3.00

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Recap: Days following consolidation normally result in breakout days. Today was no different. Trading only the pm session, managed to take advantage of both mid-day bounce and the continuation. Light trading day give the half session but take the green into Wednesday.

11:37  S  1096.00  +1.50
14:52  S 1096.25   +2.75

Monday, February 22, 2010

Recap: Unlike most trend Monday's, the market traded in a small range seeking an equilibrium. The market didn't provide much opportunity so the best traders where the ones that just took what the market would give. A very nice start for the week. Look for breakout price action following this pause.


10:19  L  1105.75   +2.00
11:47  L  1106.00   +1.50
14:06  L  1106.75   +2.75

Friday, February 19, 2010

Recap: Surprising up move after the fed decision to raise the discount rate after Thursday's close. Bias got us a bit trapped but not after a nice globex short to capture the news panic down. No trade setups in the regular session. 

Globex 16:12  S  1104.25  +4.50

Thursday, February 18, 2010

February 18, 2010Recap: Interesting price action for a change with the ES piercing that 1100.00 level to close at the highs. Smooth price action around key pivot points allowed for relatively good trading and thus good results. Key trade was a trailer hold thru the 1100 area. A daring move with a breakeven stop but only 1/4 size on the trailer allowed for a good risk reward.Protect the weekly green mode starts on Friday with the CPI results at 08:30. May be overshadowed by the surprise discount rate hike after the close. Globex trading to be reported on Friday's official update.

08:26   S 1098.75  +1.75
10:45   L 1097.00  -1.25
11:43  L  1093.50  +1.50
12:02  S  1096.75  +2.25

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Recap: Snoozefest most of the day awaiting Fed minutes. Had to consider range trades all day which always increases the trade count and smaller targets. Managed to do quite well and book the profits into tomorrow. Would have been a very good day if the globex trade, which missed entry by 2 ticks, managed to fill.

Trades for today:

08:26  S  1098.75  +1.75
10:45  L  1097.00  - 1.25
11:43  L  1093.50  +1.50
12:02  S  1096.75  +1.00

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Recap: Extremely flatlined markets from 11:00 until the close. Only a small globex trade pre-market and a long shortly after the open. Markets could not be revived until the close so we just stood pat.Ready again for tomorrow's pivots which for sure will be 1090 area.

$ES Trades today:


09:21  L  1084.25   +2.25
11:28  L  1086.00   +3.25

Monday, February 15, 2010

Markets closed for Federal Holiday.
Also want to thank all that came to speak to me at the Traders Expo/ New York this past weekend. It was a long few days but certainly enjoyable to talk shop with the trading community.

Friday, February 12, 2010

Recap:  Lots of wide swings within the daily value area. Real difficult to grab most of them but will go into the holiday weekend with a reminder that confluence is king, regardless of setup. Must say the fib confluence is queen these days, providing good probe confluence throughout setup #2. Great weekend all.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Recap:  Chopfest that bordered a uncatchable rally after placement of the IB. Difficult to trade but also difficult to get hurt. Still have one remaining on a trailer. Results for the day pending outcome.

Trades Executed

10:00  L   1063.00  B/E
13:53  L   1074.00  pending  (1st target hit, +3, one remaining.

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Extremely nice order flow thru the IB established in the first hour. This IB to IB range of price action has occurred every day this week as the market attempts to find (and test) value. 'Secretariat' setup continues its movement with two trades today. Coincidentally, they were off major confluence: VAH of 1066.25 and the VAL of 1058.75. Gotta love it when confluence works.

09:55  S  1066.75   +5.00
12:03  L  1061.50   +5.00

Tuesday, February 29, 2010

RECAP: One of the challenges of trading with confluence is that rare news event that disrupts good order flow. News of Greece getting assistance from the Eurozone forced us to lay low and the afternoon chop resulted in no good risk-reward traders. Technical result would have resulted in a relative break-even or a slight positive. We move to more normal trading tomorrow pending our snowstorm doesn't shut us down. 10-year auction too!

Monday, February 8, 2010

Recap: Wild swings all day forming a V pivot and ending down over 100 points on the day. The best action was in the globex session where price tested the POC and VAH and then back again (if you had the nerve). The setup of the day was for the IB high to the POC (if you had the time and nerve!). Caught a piece of both but gave back 3 opportunities that flashed itself in value only to be rejected. Globex nation. continues to impress. We'll look to see if that 1060 area will be tested in the globex, perhaps after a test of the 1053 lows.

17:12  S  1061.75  +3.00
07:44  L  1058.50  +3.00
09:52  S  1057.25  +2.50
15:14  S  1059.00  -2.50
15:37  L  1059.25  -2.50

Friday, February 5, 2010

RECAP: Can you say capitulation? We'll, you may care to say it, but time will tell if this monster doji on th daily bar will hold up. Rush to buy call options?  Not so fast, but the bullish tape erasing 200+ dow points in the last 2 hours is certainly reflective of an oversold market. Of course, we never know what the market will do. That's why we trade the charts. Here are the official trades for the day:

9:52   S  1057.25   +2.50
10:39 L  1059.50  +3.50
14:32 S  1046.50  +2.00 

Thursday, February 4, 2010

Incredible down auction but nearly impossibe to catch the move. Some small clips positive and negatve but for the most part, it was a seat on the balcony watching the short show. Employment numbers tomorrow should add some gusto.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Challenging day and managed t close out with a nice long runner inside value. Would have been a nice runner but market never let the shorts panic resulting in a b/e on the trailer and for the day less commish.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

You can fool some people some of the time.....

Unexpected trend day up today. All trend trades today and ended up a perfect 3-0, +7.50 (based on one contract). Entering an area that resumed some massive selling last week. Let's see how the response is....as early as in tonights globex overnight trading. Could have obtained more meat off the bone, particularly in the last few hours of trading, but we'll take it.

08:05  S 1089.75   +2.00
09:24  S 1088.25   +2.75
10:58  S 1093.50   +2.75

Monday, February 1, 2010

Recap: Trend day up for a change. In fact, it started at the first hour of the globex session at 7pm EST and never stopped. 60-min MACD momentum bars continued for a near record 23 hours. Not sure when the last time that happened. One trade from that time until 15:00.Taking that one trade to the bank. Love that when I can keep points and not give it back to my platform broker. Trades posted on the blog.

Here is the one trade for the day. Relunctantly opted out of the reversal at 15:00 (last hour of regular session) and saved 2.75 points.

19:00:  L 1072.50    +13.50

Friday, January 29, 2010

Recap: Extremely difficult conditions to trade this week and enlarged in today's price action. Longer term price anchor charts to be implemented starting Monday to accommodate increased volatility. This should keep point capture up with less trades and less stop out probes. Since Jan. 1, these anchors have provided nearly double the posted results and have avoided HFT stops patterns. Looking forward to taking a more tactician approach without fear of probe stop-outs. Negative day to end the week. 2-4, -6.75 point. We'll get them on Monday and look forward to a successful February.

Here are the trades today:

9:48   L  1084.25   +1.75
10:36 L  1092.00   -3.50
10:48 S  1086.00   -2.00
11:17 S  1085.00   +2.50
12:03 S  1078.25   -3.25
12:48 L  1083.25   -1.75 

Thursday, January 28, 2010

Crazy volatile markets continue with 70 point YM and 10 pt ES swings being the norm. Proper risk management in any plan is to reduce size and we are no different. Took a Fed-Day approach to the Bernanke hearings. GDP number out tomorrow at 08:30. Here are the official trades recorded. 

10:14  S  1084.00   +2.00
11:03  L  1085.00   -3.75
11:08  S  1081.75  +3.00

Will be trading GDP number release and overnight globex should opportunity prevail.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Crazy FOMC decision day and today was no exception. Kept it really light in the TWC setups onl;y having three trades. Not a bad idea to take off on these days but managed to hold our own within the winds of Treasury secretary hearnings, Apple product releases, Fed decision day and a pending State of the Union address. Look to get back to normal tomorrow.

10:08    S    1087.00   +2.50
15:14    L    1093.25   -1.25
15:44    L    1093.50   +1.00

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Market volatility is back. That's for sure. After a tank overnight thanks to China markets and what seemingly was an impressive AAPL report, ES dropped 10 points in evening globex. Unfortunately, we were caught long after a 60 min signal resulting in a stop. Todays action fared better. Results posted below:


20:01 (globex)  S 1091.25   -3.75
09:45                L 1090.50   +3.50
11:12                L 1093.50   +1.75
14:12                L 1098.50   -2.50
15:17                S 1095.75   +3.75 

Monday, January 25, 2010

Difficult price action to read so we kept it close to the belt. Don't want to get slammed on a Monday. Below are the trades for today:

06:55  S  1100.50   +1.50
10:31  S  1095.50   +1.50
11:35  S  1091.50   +1.50
13:11  L  1095.50   +1.50
14:40  S  1096.50    -1.50
15:04  L  1098.50    -2.50

Yahoo reports after the close tomorrow.  Watching NQ closely tomorrow as did today due to AAPL report.

Friday, January 22, 2010

Extreme disappointment in the overall result given the fact that you could have shorted at the open and flattened at the close. If trading was ever that easy.

Here are the trade activity for Friday:

10:24   1102.75  Short  -4.25
01:31   1104.75  Short  +1.75
14:13   1102.00  Short  +2.00
15:38   1092.50  Short  +4.75

Look for continued volatility and seek greater stops and targets to accommodate same.

  

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Recap posted on the http://www.twcfutures.com/ site for today's action. Trades recorded as follows

10:01  Long    1135.00   +1.50
10:38  Short    1121.50  +1.75
15:16  Short    1112.75   -2.00
15:49  Short    1115.75   +3.25

Overall a very nice week so far. Protect-the-green mode for Frantic Friday.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Recap: Another trend day, this time down. Most of the move was pre-market and during the IB period. Major pivot numbers noted on the site were big payoffs if one had the stamina and patience. Kiss off the 1126 area was almost to the tick. Turned out to be the daily low with a close 7 ES points higher. Take our +6.5 from 3 trades into Thursdays action. Markets trading well so far this week. 

Trades for today: (points per contract)

9:53am   Short 1137.00  +1.00
10:51am Short 1130.25  +1.75
11:08am Long  1127.25 +1.50
02:22pm Long  1130.00 +1.50


GS earnings report tomorrow morning. Will step aside accordingly

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Crazy trend up day after they pushed it down to the 26-27 level pre-market. Took the MACD momo at 9:00am and exited for 4 points as per plan. (woulda, shoulda, coulda held, of course). Waited for any pullback and only one was at 3:20pm where another 2+ points were captured.
This market is relentless and buyers are waiting for any pullback, even if they appear severe, like in the case of the 100 pt drop on Friday. IBM earnings out after close. Look good but initial selling on news.

The grand-daddy of them all, Goldman Sachs, out with earnings on Thurs. morning.


Trades for Today

09:04am  1130.75  +4.00
03:21pm  1144.25  +2.75

Monday, January 18, 2010

Markets closed - MLK, Jr. Holiday.
Futures up slightly in Sunday night globex.
Markets resume trading Monday evening 18:00.

Friday, January 15, 2010

With options expiration day upon us, not only was the conservative umbrellas up, but we also wanted to protect our weekly green. Our best opportunity was in the globex session, where the markets used the great earnings report by INTEL to perform their famous pump and dump routine by dropping 10 points at one point in the globex. 1138 was our price and bounced nicely off that area. During the regular session that area didn't hold so we sought out shorts. Confident about a late selloff back to the lows never happened and took at breakeven near the close. Daily result of 2-0-1 for a 2.5 pt gain into the holiday weekend.
Recently the markets were able to bounce back from these shakeout days. let's see if they can continue that. Official support and resistance numbers to go out Monday night but I wouldnt be suprised if that 1138 pops its head up as one of the pivots.
Good weekend all.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Always difficult to detect a range vs. trend day up , especially when the initial action is showing weakness. A H/A bar turns color, a 15-min bar is broken, then a fib break. Next thing you know your outside the IB and racing to new highs, leaving your 3 pt winner looking like food scraps. We'll take the slight net gain into expiration peak.

2-1 +1.25

January 11, 2010

Recap:
No official trades today however there was a nice range created that included a rare breach of prior days lows. Notice the HFT 'gotcha' trade early in the regular session. Price made new lows at the open, failed rally and broke the new low by a tick and bounced 5 points. Don't forget these play's now that HFT has virtually killed the breakout trader.
Anticipate range day for tomorrow and trade strategies accordingly.

January 11, 2009

Recap: Two trades today resulting in a 1-1 but positive 2.75 ES points. Markets getting a bit agitated at these highs. Looks like a surprise is coming soon.

January 8, 2010 Wrapup

Unemployement number resulted in a big red bar but in the end, it was a big fake out. Market slowly churned to the 1140+ mark with a late day rally. We closed shop with our long at 3:30 which we held for over 1 hour. Took 1.5 points but if we waited until close, it would have netted 5+. No regrets playing 50-50 hour.

Trades today

09:00 ES long 33.75 +3.25
14:15 ES long36.00 +1.50

Next week we have earnings season kickoff + options expiration. Lovely as always. Great weekend all.

Thursday, January 10, 2010

Unexpected trend day pre-employment report day. Caught us a bit by suprise but had an early (9:38EST) winner to use as insurance for the trading day. Slightly negative trades attempting pullbacks with stops hit or breakevens. did not play ther 3:02pm short but would have been stopped out if we did. Sometimes the market gives you these gifts but often enough. Waiting for jobs report and will sit tight pre-market.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

The prior post noted an overnight session pending. Trade was closed at 4am EST for a 1.75pt winner. Market had a small range (5.75 points) but still managed a 3-4 plus the overnight trade for a 4-5 trade record with a +3.75 points per contracts. Missed a nice 2.25 point winner (no fill) but will not complain about the days action.


Trade Journal for today is listed below.

time result point target actual result

11:32pm target 2.50 1.75
08:47 target 1.75 1.75
10:38 stop 3.00 -2.50
12:01 target 1.75 1.50
15:20 target 1.25 1.25


Look for jobless claims to cause some volatility tomorrow 8:30am. Vol may tighten up in the afternoon awaiting the big monthly unemployment number. Then again, anything can happen. We'll just keep trading the range.

Globex session: Tuesday ALERT

Interesting short setup forming in the globex session.
1:50am short ES 2.5 target/stop 1:1 risk reward.

Looking for a nice suprise at wakeup.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Here are today's trade journal entries:

1. 7:41am short -2.25 28800 vol chart. Stop out on immediate bar reversal.
2. 10:16am long +4.50 target
rode this cowboy all day and exited at close of regular session +3.00. Holders would have resulted in a breakeven from the indications of the overnight globex session. Great example why stops below confluence are there not only to protect you but allow the markets volatility to do its thing.

Interesting note was that our business continunity/emergency response plan which was developed in 2009 and thankfully never implemented was needed on the 2nd day of the new trading year. Computers are a funny thing and our new terabyte chip that never freezes did just that. Stops were in place with phone in hand to the broker (thankfully the trade was thru the always-available Infinity brokerage!) all was resolved in time for a 3:58 flatten. From a risk perspective, the controls were in place. We had the backup plan and our bracketed stop in place. The risk was our inability to move our stop near the close (we had at 2.5 point winner at the time). All worked out and in fact may have allowed us to hold on a bit longer for some extra meat off the bone.

Looking at some initial weakness after that sharp run up during the last hours and suggest watching for a short in the early part of the overnight session.

January 4, 2010 Wrapup

Looks like an easy day to trade but trend days are always challenging. If you get in early, you probably get out to soon. Once the rally takes off, you can't find a pullback to get long. TWC suffered the wait game today but continue to stick to the plan. One small loss today (-2.25) but encouraged the volume and range is back.

M.Toma - Dir. Risk Mgmt
TWC Futures Group

January 4, 2010

Good trading to all for the first trading day of 2010. Just stick to the plan and let the market do the work. Check out the latest updates to the TWC Futures Site:

- 9k account benchmark update for 1-2 contract accounts.
- Article: Blueberries and Cherries: 8 yr old boy's trading results.

Trading results updated after regular session close.